31 July 2014
Wind energy scenarios for 2020
EWEA’s previous wind energy scenarios were published in 2009 (“Pure Power 2”) following the adoption of the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive. They were subsequently re-published in 2011 (“Pure Power 3”). The scenarios looked at both annual and cumulative installations and included a country breakdown for 2020, but not for intermediate years. The headline figure was 230 GW (of which 40 GW offshore) producing 581 TWh of electricity, meeting 15.7% of electricity consumption. EU electricity consumption for 2020 was projected to be 3,689.5 TWh.
In light of developments since 2009, not least the economic downturn and regulatory instability in a number of key European markets, EWEA has reviewed its 2020 scenarios according to present and expected realities. The European Commission now expects final power demand in 2020 to be 11% lower than it did in 2009 (2,956 TWh gross final consumption in EU27, instead of 3,336 TWh). In reality, therefore, the Commission does not expect EU power demand to increase above its 2008 peak until after 2020. This economic reality has had a impact on demand for new power installations for all generation technologies.