Posters
Come meet the poster presenters to ask them questions and discuss their work
We would like to invite you to come and see the posters at our upcoming conference. The posters will showcase a diverse range of research topics, and will give delegates an opportunity to engage with the authors and learn more about their work. Whether you are a seasoned researcher or simply curious about the latest developments in your field, we believe that the posters will offer something of interest to everyone. So please join us at the conference and take advantage of this opportunity to learn and engage with your peers in the academic community. We look forward to seeing you there!
PO172: Extreme wind conditions over North Atlantic basin using synthetic hurricane tracks.
Eloïse Merlaud, Metocean Engineer, DHI A/S
Abstract
We present a statistical methodology to simulate synthetic tropical cyclones, including their movement and intensity, for extreme wind speed derivation. The model relies on historical tracks, which are used to fit forward speed, heading and central pressure parameters for the synthetic cyclones. The methodology is applied over the North Atlantic (NA) basin, with a focus on the U.S. East Coast region due to its increasing density of planned offshore wind projects. The model works by decoupling the synthetic hurricanes' characteristics into one Markov Chain process for each parameter. All tracks within a 350-km radius from the point of interest are used to derive extreme wind speeds at that location. The output of this methodology is an empirical distribution of extreme winds at any location within the NA basin. For a particular offshore wind farm project site, this methodology yields a 50-year extreme wind speed of 33.8 m/s at 10 mMSL. This result shows that the extreme wind speeds computed from this method is within +/-4% from values estimated in commercial projects over the same region using other commercially available synthetic tracks. The presented method is another option for extreme wind derivation on regions prone to tropical cyclones and can complement other approaches, such as the probabilistic Monte-Carlo simulation approach outlined in Annex J of IEC 61400-1:2019. Moreover, unlike the Annex J methodology which only simulates a snapshot of the synthetic tracks at a single location, the wind fields generated with such a method can be used as boundary conditions to force spectral wave models to derive extreme wave characteristics.
