Come meet the poster presenters to ask them questions and discuss their work
Check the programme for our poster viewing moments. For more details on each poster, click on the poster titles to read the abstract. On Wednesday, 6 April at 15:30-16:15, join us on Level 3 of the Conference area for the Poster Awards!
PO286: The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the wind industry, lessons from the SECLI-FIRM project.
José Vidal, Technical Director Energy Advisory, UL
While the energy sector has routinely been using weather forecasts out to 10 days ahead (Dubus 2010, Troccoli et al. 2014), climatological data (typically based on 30-year averages) are mostly used for longer time horizons. However, an increasing focus is being placed on the production and assessment of longer-range forecasts, from two weeks up to a month (sub-seasonal forecasts), and out to several months (seasonal forecasts). The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions (SECLI-FIRM) is a project funded by the European Union under the H2020 call SC5-01-2016-2017, Exploiting the added value of climate services. The project started in February 2018 and has finished in October 2021.The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. The project focused in regions of Europe and Colombia. In this presentation we show a selection of the lessons learned in the project: what is the current accuracy of models used for seasonal forecasting, why they cannot be used as the atmospheric models used for wind assessment, good-use practices to optimize results, and some examples of where they can provide value over climatological information. Additionally, we will also show a successful forecast case for hydro power in Colombia and its implications for the future development of wind and solar energy in the country.