Posters

Abstract

While the energy sector has routinely been using weather forecasts out to 10 days ahead (Dubus 2010, Troccoli et al. 2014), climatological data (typically based on 30-year averages) are mostly used for longer time horizons. However, an increasing focus is being placed on the production and assessment of longer-range forecasts, from two weeks up to a month (sub-seasonal forecasts), and out to several months (seasonal forecasts). The Added Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasts for Integrated Risk Management Decisions (SECLI-FIRM) is a project funded by the European Union under the H2020 call SC5-01-2016-2017, Exploiting the added value of climate services. The project started in February 2018 and has finished in October 2021.The central objective of SECLI-FIRM is to demonstrate how the use of improved climate forecasts, out to several months ahead, can add practical and economic value to decision-making processes and outcomes, primarily in the energy sector, but also in the water sector. The project focused in regions of Europe and Colombia. In this presentation we show a selection of the lessons learned in the project: what is the current accuracy of models used for seasonal forecasting, why they cannot be used as the atmospheric models used for wind assessment, good-use practices to optimize results, and some examples of where they can provide value over climatological information. Additionally, we will also show a successful forecast case for hydro power in Colombia and its implications for the future development of wind and solar energy in the country.