Presentations

Abstract

The Smart Siting methodology developed by The Nature Conservancy (TNC) is designed to guide stakeholders (e.g., policymakers, developers, NGOs) in identifying suitable areas to accelerate renewable energy deployment, helping countries to meet their National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) targets. This methodology, which integrates biodiversity and social assets, and energy development potential (DP), was used in Portugal to support spatial planning for onshore wind and ground mounted solar energy. As part of this broader initiative, this submission presents the approach and findings related to the application of Smart Siting to onshore wind. The energy DP maps were generated using a Random Forest model trained on multiple spatial drivers (e.g., technical feasibility, grid infrastructure, proximity to urban areas). The biodiversity and social layers were developed using a coarse-filter/fine-filter framework, integrating ecosystem-level data with species-specific sensitivity maps, as well as a map of culturally significant sites identified by national experts and a visual impact analysis derived from social media data. Intersecting DP maps with biodiversity and social conflict layers reveals that, depending on power density assumptions, low-conflict sites could support 18% to 51% of Portugal’s 2030 NECP onshore wind target. These findings indicate that achieving NECP targets may require expanding consideration beyond low-conflict sites, highlighting the importance of flexible planning and potential mitigation strategies. Additional sites (e.g., classified as moderate conflict) can contribute to development if guided by mitigation hierarchy principles and considering additional social and biodiversity criteria. Furthermore, the analysis will shed light on the current barriers of power infrastructure that stalls wind development and highlight the strategic role of repowering and overpowering existing onshore wind infrastructure to optimize land use and grid efficiency.