Posters

Abstract

The recent drop in the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for onshore wind project has reduced reliance on government subsidies, but increased exposure of revenues to market fluctuations. As wind energy penetration increases, the cannibalization effect intensifies. A negative correlation between wind speed and market price is observed in Europe: at high wind speeds, wind turbines generate more electricity at a low marginal cost, causing prices to drop due to the merit-order effect. This trend is expected to intensify in the coming years. The rise of solar energy also contributes to increased intraday price volatility, illustrated by the so-called duck curve, with low prices during midday and nighttime, and peaks in the morning and evening. Another major challenge for onshore wind development is grid connection. Many European countries face limited grid capacity expansion rate, leading to congestion and potential curtailment of wind production. Additionally, grid charges are often based on installed capacity rather than actual production. This study analyses the production and revenue profiles of different turbine types, varying in rotor diameter and nominal power rating. It shows that profitability depends not only on how much electricity is produced, but also on when it is produced relative to market demand. Aiming to maximise the total production can increase costs without proportional revenue returns, thereby reducing investment efficiency. The analysis also addresses the economic impact of environmental curtailments, such as turbine shutdowns to protect bats and power reductions to limit noise disturbances for nearby dwellings. These curtailments are typically applied under conditions that affect revenue generation differently. Noise curtailment generally apply when demand is lower, whereas bats curtailment occur during the evening for low wind speeds, when prices tend to be higher, which increases the weight of these production losses.