Posters

Abstract

The European wind energy sector has developed steadily over several decades, with widespread onshore wind farm construction and the establishment of the first commercial offshore projects in the North Sea. As the industry expands, the importance of assessing long-term wind resource variability and potential climate-related risks becomes increasingly clear. A central question is whether climate change may introduce a downward trend in wind speeds and, consequently, in energy yield. In early 2025, an unusual climate anomaly was observed across Europe: Northern countries, typically affected by frequent winter storms, experienced unusually calm and stable conditions, while the Iberian Peninsula was struck by stronger than usual activity. This anomaly raised questions across the offshore wind sector, including the potential implications for long-term production trends. In this work, we present an in-depth analysis of three offshore wind farms in which Ocean Winds holds a stake. Production data from Q1 2025 confirmed the exceptional nature of the anomaly, but subsequent quarters (Q2 and Q3) show strong recovery. To assess whether such anomalies reflect structural changes, we examined three decades using ERA5. The results show that, while short-term anomalies can be significant, no consistent downward trend in wind speeds or production has been identified over the past thirty years. This conclusion is consistent with broader scientific assessments, including the IPCC AR6, which report no robust evidence of long-term wind speed decline or systematic increase in storm frequency in Northern Europe. These insights reinforce confidence in the resilience of the offshore wind resource and highlight the need to contextualize short-term anomalies within long-term climatological records.