Posters
Come meet the poster presenters to ask them questions and discuss their work
We would like to invite you to come and see the posters at our upcoming conference. The posters will showcase a diverse range of research topics, and will give delegates an opportunity to engage with the authors and learn more about their work. Whether you are a seasoned researcher or simply curious about the latest developments in your field, we believe that the posters will offer something of interest to everyone. So please join us at the conference and take advantage of this opportunity to learn and engage with your peers in industry and the academic community.
PO097: Impact of wind generation forecast errors on reliability and operational planning of the Serbian transmission system
Danka Veljkovic, Senior Power System Engineer, Electricity Coordinating Center, Serbia
Abstract
The growing share of renewable energy sources (RES), particularly wind power plants (WPPs), introduces additional day-ahead forecast uncertainty, which challenges the operational planning of the power system. This paper assesses the impact of WPP production forecast errors on active power flows in the transmission network, considering both full network topology and N-1 contingency scenarios, as well as on the reliability of day-ahead cross-border capacity calculations. As RES penetration increases, quantifying these forecast errors becomes essential for maintaining system reliability and accurately determining day-ahead transmission capacities for market operations. A novel simulation model was developed to quantify the impact of day-ahead forecast errors of individual connected WPPs on hourly power flows across multiple scenarios. Using historical forecast and actual generation data, deviations in active power flows are calculated for each critical network element (CNE) over an entire year. The resulting dataset enables assessment of CNE sensitivity to RES forecast uncertainty, supporting more accurate operational planning, N-1 security analyses, and day-ahead cross-border capacity calculations. The model isolates the effects of forecast error, providing a sensitivity analysis of power flow variations on CNEs. Results quantify impacts on base-case power flows, N-1 security criteria violations, total system losses, and the reliability of cross-border capacity calculation. Results for existing Serbian wind farms show that forecast errors can significantly shift flows on some lines, highlighting the importance of incorporating forecast uncertainty into system analyses. The analysis underscores the need for a dynamic Flow Reliability Margin (FRM) assessment, particularly with planned RES expansion exceeding 5000 MW of wind and solar capacity. This framework enables transmission system operators (TSOs) to enhance grid reliability, optimize operational planning, and support cross-zonal trading, contributing to Europe’s RES integration objectives.
