Posters
Come meet the poster presenters to ask them questions and discuss their work
We would like to invite you to come and see the posters at our upcoming conference. The posters will showcase a diverse range of research topics, and will give delegates an opportunity to engage with the authors and learn more about their work. Whether you are a seasoned researcher or simply curious about the latest developments in your field, we believe that the posters will offer something of interest to everyone. So please join us at the conference and take advantage of this opportunity to learn and engage with your peers in industry and the academic community.
PO096: When wind meets markets: capturing price and curtailment risk in wind asset valuation
Valentin Albinet, Global Practice Lead, Power Price Forecast, DNV
Abstract
The long‑term value of a wind project is shaped not only by the amount of energy produced but also by the timing of that production relative to market conditions. Electricity prices typically rise when renewable output is scarce and fall when wind generation is abundant. When curtailment is added to this dynamic, the complexity increases further. Ignoring these interactions can lead to significant mis‑valuation of projects and portfolios. A practical workflow is presented that integrates Energy Yield Assessment (EYA), Power Price Forecasts (PPF) and Grid Curtailment Forecasts (GCF) at hourly resolution. By aligning climate years across all three components, the approach preserves the co‑variability between production, prices and grid constraints that drives captured revenues. Curtailment is modelled on an hourly basis to reflect market and operational limitations that influence both prices and dispatch. The methodology has been applied to representative Iberian assets and benchmarked against two common shortcuts: monthly aggregation method and the typical‑day method. The comparison demonstrates that these simplified methods can distort captured revenue estimates and risk metrics in ways that matter for investment decisions. Beyond individual projects, the workflow supports portfolio optimisation, hybridisation strategies and PPA negotiations. Implementation is straightforward, as it builds on standard tools already used in EYAs and market modelling, making adoption straightforward while significantly improving the robustness of long‑term valuations. This contribution aligns with the track Grid Integration, Electrification & Power‑to‑X, under the subtopic wind power forecasting for trading and system modelling, with transversal links to Digitalisation & Data and Resource Assessment.
No recording available for this poster.
