Posters

Abstract

Germany aims to install 160 GW of onshore wind energy by 2040 to meet federal climate targets [1]. Currently, the installed capacity is only 64 GW [2]. To close this gap, around 2% of the national land area must be designated for wind energy [3]. Assessing wind potential is particularly complex in Germany, as each federal state applies its own distance regulations to settlements, infrastructure, and protected areas. This results in more than 3,000 different distance rules [4]. Unlike most existing models, which generalize regulations into nationwide standards [5,6], this study explicitly implements the state-specific setback rules in a uniform framework. Furthermore, previous approaches are often limited to the techno-economic potential, either neglecting regional regulations and socio-economic parameters or becoming quickly outdated due to rapid turbine technology development [7,8]. This paper expands upon the work of Reichartz et al. [8], presented at WindEurope 2025 and Bons et al. [6], by introducing a methodology that reduces the techno-economic wind potential to the realizable wind energy potential using risk assessment. The model is applied nationwide, calculating Germany’s technically feasible onshore wind potential at 227.38 GW, or up to 1,455.66 GW including exemption permit areas and forests. The risk-based reduction to realizable potential yields 709.35 GW (2,628 TWh/year) on 3.72% of land area. The results provide municipalities, developers, and policymakers with detailed insights into both spatial and socio-structural constraints. Developers can identify viable sites across different state markets, while policymakers are equipped with an evidence base for harmonizing regulations and designing targeted incentives. By explicitly incorporating acceptance-related risk factors, this analysis delivers a more realistic, credible estimate of Germany’s realizable wind energy potential and highlights the gap between technical and feasible expansion.