Presentations

Abstract

In wind energy yield assessment, the industry traditionally relies on standard values and long-term mean values for critical loss calculations. While this approach simplifies the energy yield assessment process, it fails to account for the time-varying nature of key factors, leading to less accurate energy production estimates. This study presents a state-of-the-art method that integrates time-variant approaches to improve the accuracy of energy yield assessments. The study focuses on analyzing how losses such as wake effects, availability, electrical efficiency, turbine performance, ambient conditions, and curtailments fluctuate over time and the complexity of applying these time-sensitive methods. By adopting these advanced time-variant approaches, the study demonstrates a significant enhancement in energy yield assessment accuracy. This approach provides a more detailed and reliable understanding of how dynamic factors influence energy yields. Additionally, using time-variant methods allows uncertainties to be calculated variably across the time series, providing a nuanced perspective of the uncertainty distribution over time. The findings show that transitioning from standard values and long-term mean values assumptions to time-variant methods reduces uncertainties, leading to more precise energy yield assessment and optimized resource management. This is particularly important for improving energy yield assessments and refining calculations in Power Purchase Agreements (PPA), as well as the determination of power-to-x. This work emphasizes the importance of employing cutting-edge energy yield assessment techniques to better capture the complex dynamics of wind energy systems.