Presentations

Abstract

Current wind farm energy yield assessment methodology is based on the assumption that historical energy resource is representative of future expectations. Under a changing climate this assumption will not hold true. Capturing the impact from climate change on future energy yield will be a complex process, given (a) large variation in climate projections under different emissions scenarios (b) large variation and uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of change of meteorological variables from different climate models (c) interactions between meteorological variables affecting energy yield. Any wind energy yield assessment incorporating climate change impacts on a quantitative basis will need to capture the uncertainty in these estimations in an effective way, as these results could have a significant impact on project financing and operation. It is noted that climate change impacts on a wind project may include additional risks such as policy changes and market risks, but the remit of this work is the direct impact from changing meteorological conditions on energy yield. The work will present a method for estimating and presenting climate change impacts in wind energy yield assessments. The methodology explored will be a pragmatic solution that does not involve complex wind energy modelling, but instead focusses on finding a potential framework to clearly express the range of possible impacts and the confidence of the estimates in a way that is most useful to the wind energy industry.