Posters
Come meet the poster presenters to ask them questions and discuss their work
We would like to invite you to come and see the posters at our upcoming conference. The posters will showcase a diverse range of research topics, and will give delegates an opportunity to engage with the authors and learn more about their work. Whether you are a seasoned researcher or simply curious about the latest developments in your field, we believe that the posters will offer something of interest to everyone. So please join us at the conference and take advantage of this opportunity to learn and engage with your peers in industry and the academic community.
On 9 April at 17:15, we’ll also hold the main poster session and distinguish the 7 best posters of this year’s edition with our traditional Poster Awards Ceremony. Join us at the poster area to cheer and meet the laureates, and enjoy some drinks with all poster presenters!
We look forward to seeing you there!
PO132: A probabilistic model for high-wind hysteresis
Morten Nielsen, Senior Scientist, DTU
Abstract
The traditional strategy for wind turbine control during storms, is to stop operation at a predefined cut-out level and re-start when the wind calms down to a suitable cut-in level. With this strategy it is relevant to ask * How often will the turbine stop? * How long will a shut-down event last? * What is the associated loss in annual energy production? Simulation by observed or synthesized wind speed time series can answer these questions. However, this presentation suggests a novel probabilistic approach where we * Model the developing wind speed probability distribution function (PDF) after up crossing the cut-out level. * Find the probability distribution of the first-passage time for down-crossing the cut-in level. First-passage time statistics of shut-down events predict their duration. The process may cross the cut-out level several times during a shut-down event, so we simulate two additional events with wind entering the regulation range from below or above while the process is stopped at two absorbing boundaries. The resulting statistics of different ways to enter and leave the regulation range provide a correction of the unconditional up-crossing probability and thereby a prediction of the shut-down frequency. Kristensen et al. (Wind Energy, 2004, vol 7, pp. 37-46) calculated the production loss due to high-wind hysteresis by the shut-down probability in the regulation range. Based on time series from short masts at onshore sites in Denmark, this probability was found to be 12-20%. The new model predicts this probability by relative probabilities and durations of the four types of wind speed tracks through the regulation range.
No recording available for this poster.
