Presentations

Abstract

Recent studies indicate that Türkiye presents substantial potential for the exploitation of offshore wind energy, primarily in the Eastern Mediterranean region. Traditional methodologies for assessing wind energy potential typically rely on the last 20 years of reanalysis data correlated with local measurements. However, recent findings show the importance of incorporating future climate projections to minimize uncertainties in flow modeling for site suitability analyses, which directly affect the selection of candidate wind turbines for micro-siting purposes.  The purpose of this study is to estimate the 50-year wind speed (U₅₀) and the 95th percentile wind speed at a turbine hub height of 100 m under two scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions) for accurate IEC type classification and turbine selection. The IEC standard requires site suitability analysis based on 10-minute intervals, which is not feasible using CMIP6 models (Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) that provide daily data. To address this limitation, we employ a spectral correction method and compare it with the Annual Maximum Method, applied to a multi-model ensemble of bias-corrected CMIP6 data anchored by historical ERA5 reanalysis. Our results show that the U₅₀ values under SSP5-8.5 with spectral correction increase by 3 to 5% relative to previously estimated values of 34 to 38 m/s, reflecting a higher energy content in the climate-driven spectrum. Additionally, we identify varying trends in U₅₀ values across other Turkish regions, including the Aegean, Marmara and the western Black Sea, highlighting both gains and regressions. On the basis of these outcomes, we present a novel approach to turbine selection using IEC classes for both past and future climate conditions, illustrating significant differences depending on the chosen analysis method. By integrating spectral-corrected 50-year wind from CMIP6 models, this study offers a robust framework for assessing climate change impacts on wind energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean region, spanning both historical and future horizons. These findings provide valuable information for policy makers and industry stakeholders to optimize decision-making and planning processes under changing climate conditions