Posters

Abstract

Generating electricity from wind plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change. However, climate variability and change can impact the supply of renewable energy, such as wind energy. Estimating future climate risks is not straightforward; it requires a careful balance of scientific rigor, practical applicability, and ongoing adaptability to emerging knowledge and data. Reanalyses and climate models are key tools to understand past and future changes in wind resources and are, therefore, widely used in the community. Model and period selection, post-processing, and interpretation can produce varied results. Reflecting on George Box's assertion that "all models are wrong; some are useful," the practical question is, "How wrong must the models be not to be useful?" It's crucial to ensure the chosen model is fit for purpose. The model selected must align with the specific aspect of climate risk being evaluated, acknowledging that while no model is perfect, its utility lies in its appropriateness for the task. In this presentation, we focus on applying climate data to estimate future climate risks in the energy sector. We explore the following areas: (1) selecting climate data, scenarios, and model ensembles, (2) processing climate model winds, and (3) choosing the correct variable for the proper application. We will provide examples of common practices in these three areas and demonstrate when and how their interpretation of wind energy applications can be incorrect.