Posters
See the list of poster presenters at the Technology Workshop 2026 – and check out their work!
For more details on each poster, click on the poster titles to read the abstract.
PO60: Mapping inter‑annual wind speed variability in the Southern Baltic: influence on offshore yield assessments
Marceli Tauzowski, Head of Wind Analytics and Optimisation, PGE Baltica
Abstract
Inter‑annual variability (IAV) represents natural year‑to‑year fluctuations in wind speed and is one of the key contributors to uncertainty in offshore wind energy assessments. Despite its importance, regions where no dedicated IAV research exists often default to the widely used assumption of 6%, reflecting a conservative industry practice. International studies show that offshore IAV is driven by the regional wind climate. Its calculated value is further shaped by methodological factors, including the length of the reference period used, the definition of a “year”, and height dependence. For emerging offshore wind markets such as Poland, determining a sound, region‑specific IAV value is therefore essential for robust energy yield predictions. This work presents a comprehensive assessment of IAV across the Southern Baltic Sea within the Polish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). It combines 30‑year reanalysis datasets with validation from floating and fixed LiDAR campaigns conducted in the region, enabling the derivation of Baltic‑specific IAV values. Beyond establishing a baseline estimate, the study examines height‑related sensitivities. As turbine technology evolves and hub heights continue to rise across offshore wind markets, understanding how IAV varies with height is becoming increasingly important. The study further presents a pioneering spatial IAV map for the Southern Baltic, showing the magnitude of IAV and its distribution across the region. These insights can guide the consideration of region‑appropriate IAV inputs for Southern Baltic resource assessments. To demonstrate the practical impact, a sensitivity analysis for a hypothetical offshore wind farm will evaluate how the standard IAV assumption and Baltic‑specific values translate into differences in the P90/P50 ratio, an important metric for assessing long‑term yield uncertainty. Overall, this work aims to deliver insights that can enhance uncertainty modelling for Polish offshore wind and support more reliable energy yield assessments for future projects.
No recording available for this poster.
