Posters

Abstract

Demand for offshore wind farms and related marshalling and installation services in the Baltic Sea is set to increase significantly over the coming decade (2026-2036). As offshore wind deployment accelerates in ice-affected regions of the Baltic–Nordic region, project success increasingly depends on the performance and adaptability of coastal and port infrastructure. Ports acting as offshore wind marshalling, pre-assembly and logistics hubs are sensitive to ice conditions, defined by shorter ice seasons, increased ice mobility, higher frequency of drifting ice fields and extended transitional freeze–thaw periods. These conditions directly affect installation times, significantly increases prices, heavy-lift feasibility, vessel accessibility and safety margins across the offshore wind supply chain. This paper defines how short- and medium-term wind and ice forecasting can be systematically integrated into operational planning and infrastructure implementation for cold-climate ports supporting offshore wind logistics, construction and maintenance. The study combines engineering-based analysis of ice–structure interaction, quay and foundation performance under combined vertical and horizontal loads, with findings from a technical survey of Baltic–Nordic offshore wind developers, installation contractors. Asset owners and logistics providers. The survey shows anticipated turbine sizes (15-25 MW), onwards component weights, foundation types and installation ways, highlighting a growing mismatch between future offshore wind requirements and the technical capabilities of many existing ports. Special attention is placed on the effects of ice drift and moving ice floes on offshore foundations, moored vessels and port-based operations. Recent ice research in the Bothnia region shows that ice mobility, ridge formation and drift speed, rather than maximum ice thickness alone, are critical factors for dynamic loading, fatigue accumulation and operational risk for monopile, jacket and GBF. Using historical ice moving data from Finnish Data Centre VTT shows that these ice moving processes influence port capability by constraining safe load-out conditions and narrowing feasible installation windows. To address these challenges, a Double-Twin digital twin framework is introduced, integrating a physical twin (structural capacity, ice-induced loads, soil–structure–ice interaction and spatial constraints) with an operational twin (logistics flows, vessel interfaces and forecast-driven wind and ice conditions). The framework enables scenario-based pre-sorting of installation and logistics windows, improving predictability and reducing weather- and ice-related disruption through forecast-informed decision-making. Results indicate that early integration of ice drift forecasts and adding ice condition data into port and project planning can significantly reduce operational risk, improve installation scheduling reliability and enhance climate resilience of offshore wind supply chains. The workshop contribution highlights practical implications for port authorities, developers and engineers, demonstrating how improved use of forecasting tools can strengthen offshore wind operations in cold-climate regions.