Posters

Abstract

In recent years, there has been growing interest in incorporating the potential impacts of climate change into Wind Resource Assessments (WRA) and Energy Yield Assessments (EYA) to better predict a wind farm’s energy production over its operational lifetime. In 2024, C2Wind introduced a straightforward method for selecting the most representative climate model datasets for specific sites [1]. This approach helps reduce the uncertainty associated with climate change assessments. Building on that work, this study applies the methodology to two regions where climate change is expected to have a significant impact on future wind resources: the Mediterranean Sea (focusing on the French and Italian offshore markets) and the Southern North Sea (encompassing Northern France, the Thames Estuary, Belgium, and the Netherlands). The motivation and real-world tie-in of this follow-up study is the fact that the effects of climate change are already observable in existing measurement- and modelled datasets. The study will thus connect the previous work, focused on climate model selection, to the observable trends in real-life measurements.  The analysis uses surface wind speed time series from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Relevant models are filtered using the methodology outlined in [1], incorporating not only ERA5 but also other reanalyses such as MERRA-2 and JRA-3Q. Long-term, well-documented weather station measurements spanning several decades are also utilized. Additionally, changes in synoptic weather patterns that explain observed trends are analyzed, with a focus on seasonal variations. The impact of changes in land use within climate models is also discussed, building on findings from [2]. This study highlights the importance of site-specific analyses to understand the effects of climate change on wind resources. It further underscores the need to integrate climate model outputs into the WRA/EYA workflow to improve the accuracy of long-term energy production forecasts. [1] C2Wind. Quantitative approach for climate model selection and application in WRA & EYA. WindEurope Technology Workshop (2024-06) https://c2wind.com/f/content/pres08ge_v2.pdf.  [2] Wohland, J., Hoffmann, P., Lima, D. C. A., Breil, M., Asselin, O., and Rechid, D. Extrapolation is not enough: impacts of extreme land use change on wind profiles and wind energy according to regional climate models, Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1385–1400, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1385-2024 (2024).