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Comparison of Pre-Construction Energy Assessments and Operating Wind Farm's Energy Yields
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Kai Moennich UL International GmbH - DEWI, Germany COMPARISON OF PRE-CONSTRUCTION ENERGY ASSESSMENTS AND OPERATING WIND FARM'S ENERGY YIELDS Abstract ID: 323 Poster code: PO.257 | Download poster:  PDF file (0.31 MB) |
Download full paper: PDF (0.79 MB)
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Presenter's biography
Biographies are supplied directly by presenters at WindEurope 2016 and are published here uneditedKai is subject matter expert of the Micrositing service line of UL International GmbH – DEWI after heading the service line for 9 years, and so now responsible for all technical procedures of the service line. Before he had been a member of the Micrositing department for another 6 years. Within the department on- and offshore wind potential studies and energy yield assessments are performed, using all types of models starting from the standard WAsP over Mesoscale to CFD modeling, as well as site classifications according IEC 61400-1 and wind farm optimizations.
Before, he did his PhD about Short-term Forecasting and his diploma thesis about wind diesel-systems, both at the Physics department, University of Oldenburg, Germany.
Abstract
Comparison of Pre-Construction Energy Assessments and Operating Wind Farm's Energy Yields
Introduction
How reliable are nowadays energy yield assessments and are uncertainties covering the occurring deviations? These questions will be assessed in a quantitative analysis figuring out today's challenges.
Approach
Real life operational data will be directly compared to pre-construction forecasts, deviation development over time analyzed, and possible reasons for deviations in nowadays energy yield assessments highlighted.
Main body of abstract
Within the wind energy industry some degree of uncertainty exist regarding the correctness of pre-construction energy yield assessments compared to the later real production data in combination with the magnitude of uncertainties given for the pre-construction assessment and later real deviations.
The pre-construction energy yields will be compared with the wind farm's real operational production data and it will be investigated how given uncertainties correlate to real deviations; additionally a development of the deviations over the years will be presented to identify whether the accuracy of the energy yield assessments has improved. Possible reasons of the deviations will be discussed and a sensitivity analysis of possible reasons for deviations will show their influence on the accuracy. The effect of different conditions of wind farm terrain and other influences will be analyzed in the relation between the predicted yields and the production data.
Conclusion
This work shows the accuracy of nowadays energy yield assessments and highlights whether uncertainties are fitting to experienced deviations. In this way it will show that reliable assessments are possible and in which situations larger uncertainties can be expected.
Learning objectives
Are we able to predict the energy yield of wind farms within the given uncertainties?
Did the assessments improve over the years?
How could the Accuracy improve onward?
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